SABMILLER MAY BE SWALLOWED UP BY ITS MAIN RIVAL, AB INBEV

The world’s biggest brewer, AB InBev (ABI), is also the most frugal. There are no company cars for senior executives. Carlos Brito, the boss, flies economy class. That is one reason why, with 18% of global beer sales, ABI has a third of the profits.

This will matter in the wary manoeuvres now taking place among the giants of global brewing. On September 14th Heineken, the number three by volume (see chart), said it had rejected a takeover proposal from SABMiller, the number two. SAB seems to have been trying to defend itself against a possible takeover by ABI, which was said to be talking to bankers about raising £75 billion ($121 billion) to buy its rival. That was little more than a rumour, but industry-watchers suspect something big is indeed brewing, in brewing. And the chances are that ever-thirsty ABI, maker of Budweiser and Stella Artois, will swallow SAB.

The beer behemoth has few other ways to grow. In rich countries, consumption of beer has stopped rising. In America, ABI’s Anheuser-Busch division is suffering growing competition from small makers of “craft beer”. The number of American breweries has jumped from fewer than 100 in 1983 to more than 3,000 today. ABI has its roots in Brazil, but there drinkers are suffering from a sluggish economy and post-World Cup blues. This leaves ABI with two options, says Andrew Holland, an analyst at Société Générale: give its cash back to shareholders or buy something.

SAB is a tempting target. Though based in London, its origins are in South Africa; it has breweries and bottling plants in 15 African countries, where people still mainly guzzle moonshine. It has stakes in 21 others through an alliance with Castel, a French drinks company. Nearly 70% of SAB’s sales are in emerging markets, many of which are still developing a taste for beer. Last year its sales by volume expanded by 3% (not counting growth from acquisitions). ABI’s, in contrast, dropped 2%.

If ABI gets hold of SAB it will no doubt try to repeat tricks that have worked well since AmBev of Brazil merged with Interbrew of Belgium a decade ago and then pushed out its American boss: squeeze costs and use the new acquisition as a platform to spread its brands. That was the formula after the merged group bought Anheuser-Busch, the maker of Budweiser, in 2008. Grupo Modelo, a Mexican brewer which makes Corona and has been part of ABI since last year, is now undergoing the same rigours.

SAB would be a more difficult undertaking. For one thing, notes Mr Holland, it is more tightly managed than “fat and lazy” Anheuser-Busch was, so there is less scope for cutting costs. SAB is bigger and more complex than anything else ABI has taken on. A knack for cost-cutting may not serve it as well in fast-growing markets. Another problem is that in some countries the two giants’ combined businesses would be too big. In America Anheuser-Busch and SAB’s joint venture with Molson Coors, another rival, would together have three-quarters of the beer market. In China the two would have more than a third. These are not insurmountable problems. In America, for example, the stake in the joint venture could be sold to Molson Coors.

Despite the obstacles, a merger of the leading two beer companies looks the likeliest of the potential huge deals. Heineken, which is controlled by the Heineken family even though it owns just 23% of the company’s equity, has now given notice that it does not want to be bought (though that could change if SAB boosted its offer). Carlsberg, the smallest of the big four, is controlled by a foundation. So the parsimonious Mr Brito may well get his hands on SAB if he wants it enough. Teaching Africans to like Budweiser, however, may prove somewhat harder.

The Economist