US shale production has significantly altered the landscape of the global energy market. Ahead of the Institute of International Finance's annual spring meeting in Qatar, James King looks at how OPEC is responding to this seismic shift.
The outlook for the global energy sector will be at the forefront of the agenda when the Institute of International Finance gathers for its annual spring meeting in Doha, Qatar, this month. This is for good reason. Since oil prices began their swift descent in June 2014, cracks have started to emerge in the existing framework of global oil supply and demand. The position of the Organisation for Petroleum Co-operation (OPEC), as well as its constituent member states, which have dominated supply for decades, is eroding in the face of unconventional oil production from North America.
The global relevance of US shale producers has been self-evident for some time. But what has changed in this latest oil price plunge is their position in the energy pecking order. Today, American shale producers, operating from Texas to North Dakota, have emerged as the world’s key swing supplier. This status became clear following OPEC’s decision to maintain its existing output in November 2014, in an effort to squeeze higher cost producers.
"When OPEC met to discuss the oversupply in the global market, it decided not to cut production. This represented a structural shift in the market. It was a symbolic passing of the baton from OPEC to the US as swing supplier,” says Chad Mabry, director of exploration and production research at investment bank MLV & Co.
US acts fast
This passing of the baton was the product of astonishing levels of US oil production, emerging from some of the country’s largest unconventional plays. What caught OPEC, and the rest of the world, by surprise was the speed with which US producers capitalised on the higher oil price environment and accelerated their oil output.
"There was an extraordinary increase in oil production last year, mostly coming from three major US shale plays; the Eagle Ford and Permian Basin in Texas, and the Williston Basin in North Dakota. Those three plays yielded an increase of 1.28 million barrels per day in the 12 months to the end of January 2015. This essentially destabilised the world oil market,” says Patricia Mohr, vice-president and commodity market specialist at Scotiabank.
The surge in production hit existing supply dynamics hard. Massive volumes of Nigerian crude destined for the US were left searching for a market in the North Atlantic basin, creating huge downward pressure on oil prices. Between June 2014 and January 2015, prices tumbled by 61%, according to figures from Bloomberg.
The certainty of uncertainty
The key question facing both the global energy industry and the world economy alike is: what next? While prices remain volatile, the consensus view for the price of Brent crude in the second half of 2015 lingers somewhere between $55 and $70. Yet, it was only a year ago that the chief executive of Chevron, John Watson, claimed that $100 a barrel was the new $20. Predictions in this industry are fraught with danger.
Nevertheless, a few dominant conclusions can be drawn from this latest price slump. First, a list of obvious losers has come to the fore. Petro-states with high production costs, including Venezuela and Russia, look set for a tough time as their revenues shrink, private sector growth falters and the prospect of economic collapse emerges as a real possibility. In tandem, anticipated high-cost oil exploration and production ventures in the Arctic, as well as deep offshore locations, will falter with them.
Beyond these more obvious outcomes, the outlook for OPEC has fundamentally changed. “OPEC, and in particular the dominant producers such as Saudi Arabia, are having their day of reckoning. Though they might win the battle [against US shale], they will lose the war,” says Fadel Gheit, managing director and senior oil and gas analyst at investment bank Oppenheimer & Co. “OPEC totally dismissed the impact of shale production until it grew to a point where it became the game changer that it is today.”
Most of the heavyweight producers in OPEC enjoy exceptionally low production costs, thanks in part to the accessibility of their reserves. A more important measure of their production, however, is their budget break-even (BBE) cost. According to figures from Oxford Economics, the BBE oil prices in the Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) are in the range of $51 to $102 for 2015. Bahrain tops these estimates, at $102 a barrel, followed by Saudi Arabia at $89, the United Arab Emirates at $76, Kuwait at $61 and Qatar at $51.
At current prices, most of these states will be facing budget deficits. “Over the medium term, most of the Gulf producers are well positioned to weather a prolonged oil price fall. The financial positions of the GCC countries, excluding Bahrain and Oman, looks somewhat more secure: most have financial reserves large enough to cover a 2015-level deficit for a number of years,” says Daniel Kaye, senior macroeconomic editor at Oxford Economics.
As such, most of these governments are willing to endure some medium-term pain in order to squeeze out higher cost producers in the US. And it appears this strategy is starting to pay off. The number of drilling rigs targeting oil in the US has fallen dramatically in recent months. With a peak of 1609 active rigs in October 10, 2014, it has since fallen to 1140 as of February 6, 2015, according to figures from Scotiabank.
Flexible friends
Yet, US producers are more nimble than they are typically portrayed. Once prices begin to climb, a corresponding jump in the rig count can be expected. “I would say that US shale producers are among the most flexible to respond to pricing dynamics in the global marketplace,” says Mr Mabry.
Moreover, while this drop is significant, it also conceals the fact that with a declining rig count, the marginal cost of production for shale producers also falls. "We have seen a precipitous decline in the rig count which leads to a decline in service costs for shale producers. Companies and operators are forecasting on average a 15% to 20% reduction in service costs in the current environment. This is why the marginal cost of production is also coming down," says Mr Mabry.
Few US shale plays are economically viable at current oil prices. However, production break-even varies significantly from one play to another, according to data from Bloomberg Energy Finance. Much of Texas’ giant Eagle Ford play, with its preponderance of light, sweet crude and easy access to the Gulf of Mexico ports, can be productive at figures from as low as $50. The Permian Basin, also in Texas, is viable at about $60, while the giant Bakken field in North Dakota is closer to $70.
More worryingly for OPEC, these price points are moving swiftly downwards. “If [US shale producers’] break-even point is between $50 and $80 today, I guarantee it will be significantly lower in a few years. They are motivated by survival,” says Mr Gheit.
Lower for the long run?
This production gradient means that, as prices incrementally rise, increasing volumes of US shale oil will come to market. Such a supply dynamic raises the possibility that lower oil prices will be a feature of the longer term energy environment. “At low oil prices, [OPEC] can bankrupt some producers but it is not going to kill off shale. It has to realise that technology has changed everything; it is the new world order. You can’t put the genie back in the bottle,” says Mr Gheit.
Cumulatively, this has profound implications for the dominant oil producers in the Gulf. Under this longer term scenario, almost all will need to significantly slash state spending, cut generous energy subsidies, and work harder to stimulate non-oil growth through private sector development. Though this process has been ongoing for several years in a number of states, far greater success will be needed to meet the demands of booming populations in the region, particularly in Saudi Arabia.
“There is a population explosion taking place. These governments will not stimulate enough employment under their current system for the number of young people that will be entering the labour force. This is a major social and economic problem,” says Mr Gheit.
As the dust settles in this new energy landscape, the role of OPEC looks set to be diminished. As noted by Patrick Dennis in an Oxford Economics research briefing, production discipline within the cartel has been strained by recent events, while its share of global production continues to fall from a peak of 51.2% in 1973 to 42.5% in 2013. “OPEC has been badly damaged by the rise of non-conventional oil at a time of weak global demand. We can expect that it will not be as effective in future,” he says.
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